The following article combines information from both a public and private article for a media site my colleague and I owned. We do not maintain this site, nor link to past content to the site, as the content is no longer relevant. From 2013 to 2017, we wrote articles about the cryptosphere. At the time, the cryptosphere was a nascent industry. This article is no longer relevant as the cryptosphere is nowhere near $40 billion now.

Yesterday, the cryptosphere neared $40 billion with over $1.5 billion in volume for the day. The crypto-token bitcoin led the pack with over $750 million in volume. Early adopters will still remember the day when the bitcoin hit $750 million in market cap. A volume at that level at that time felt like a dream. Meanwhile, the entire cryptosphere saw a volume of over $1.5 billion and this is an entire industry that didn't even exist a decade ago.

Warning

The following past article covers the cryptosphere. Both the public and private version of this article were written in 2017 and are not relevant after this time period. In addition, at the time the cryptosphere was new, but frequently changed in ways that did not benefit users of the crypto-tokens. Since the time of this public and private version of this article being published numerous changes have taken place. In addition, since the beginning of the cryptosphere many crypto-tokens are complete scams that are get-rich-quick-schemes for insiders. Often, we cannot know this beforehand and only later discover this. A person should only participate in the cryptosphere with the full expectation of a loss because losses are guaranteed. If you choose to participate in purchasing a token in the cryptosphere, you should do so with the full expectation of a loss and you should also expect it to change in a manner that does not benefit you. There are very few good ideas in the cryptosphere. Finally, no crypto-token in the cryptosphere is immune from cyber attacks, quantum computing or any innovation that makes the digital world irrelevant.

Ether and Dash Join Bitcoin: Mint Millionaires

Bitcoin minted the first round of millionaires as a crypto-token. This year, Dash and Ether have joined bitcoin, minting millionaires for early adopters. If they continue to innovate and stay committed - and this is a huge if because we see too many crypto-tokens self-destruct, Ether and Dash might be projects that prove their worth. Meanwhile, we're beginning to see the evolution of ideas expand.

Quick Price-Basis Note For Dash and Ether

In the cryptosphere, it can be challenging to determine a project's value. Over time, we can look at the start to the present. In evaluating both Dash and Ether here:

• Relative to the estimate you use, the Ether ICO price ranged from $0.25 to $0.35 (I've heard this debated quite a bit). The price is higher now [as of 2017 when this article was written]. This does not mean that the price will be higher in the future, but up to this point, the Ethereum community has shown a commitment to continued improvements.

• Dash started as a PoW crypto-token named XCoin, then rebranded to Darkcoin, then rebranded to Dash. Dash never had an ICO and allowed people with technical experience to possibly "mine" the token. You'll frequently see discussions about Dash's early instamine. However, the earliest pricing data I find on Dash notes that its price ranged from $0.17 to $0.37 in the beginning. The price is higher now [as of 2017 when this article was written]. This does not mean that the price will be higher in the future, but up to this point, the Dash community has shown a commitment to continued improvements.

Will either of these ideas be good in the future? There's an extremely low probability of this because, like a lot of early dotcom ideas, we can't know whether the participants of a project will continue to stay committed to these projects. How many people today use Lycos? What about ICQ? What about AskGeeves?

Keep in mind that this is a new industry that's budding and most people have no idea what bitcoin, a crypto-token, or the cryptosphere even is. As these projects innovate, they will know what all of those are. For the time being, I fully expect we'll see a correction from this high market cap value, though timing tops is not something I'm willing to do or share (in the same manner, I'm not interested in timing bottoms). I note this point because corrections can be significant. I've experienced corrections of over 90% drops since participating in the cryptosphere!

To put that into context, if you risked $1,000 in a crypto-token, it is not uncommon to see it plummet to less than $50! As I repeatedly warn, no one should consider this industry if they can't stomach losses.

Global Wealth

The cryptosphere makes up a total of 0.00019% of global wealth at the time of this writing.

I view that number growing up to a point as more people discover other ideas where this technology can be applied. For now, one could argue that we may see a limit of $100-300 billion in total mark cap over the next few years with the current set of ideas, until other applications are discovered. As the industry as a whole continues to innovate, makes itself relevant as new challenges appear, and leverages existing ideas and new technology, the cryptosphere as an industry may grow to a trillion dollar market cap. But that isn't guaranteed because for every good idea there are hundreds of bad ideas.

Will the good projects be able to sustain this attention along with their ideas? There's a low probability of this, but more attention to new ideas could mean people think about ideas that may become future winners. Additionally, I've seen companies discuss this industry and the technologies within this industry. It would be easy to assume this will involve tokens; it may not. The value in this industry may be some of the technologies and applications of technology.

If you look at the Consensus 2017 speakers, you'll realize that many major players now pay attention to this industry. When I first mentioned bitcoin and the blockchain while working for a top ten Wall Street firm when it was less than $20, no one cared. In fact, leaders laughed at the idea of tracking bitcoin pricing data (not selling it, but simply keeping its data).

Now, that same firm is paying attention to the cryptosphere.

Cryptosphere Expectations

As I type this, over 1,000 crypto-token ideas exist and some of these ideas have become crowded. Many crypto-tokens are overdone because of all the attention or the promise of getting rich quick. Many of these tokens won't command attention outside a year or two.

On the one hand, more attention could mean more money enters the industry. But more money and more attention could mean that more ideas spread and attention also spreads. Competition becomes fierce in this situation. As a capitalist, competition is good. But competition means that some projects will fail or won't live up to their promises. Again, losses are guaranteed because we all die in the end.

Bubbles Validate Good Ideas

Bitcoin has validated Austrian economics, though I find it humorous that some of the beneficiaries of this want the industry regulated in the name of "preventing bubbles", which will harm the industry. Bubbles happen whether you want them to or not, but the price of quality projects after a correction is still higher than when the bubble began. You can be wise like Vitalik Buterin and see this [dead link], or you can be ignorant like the mainstream media and fail to see this reality [dead link]. A correction destroys bad ideas, bad projects, and deceptive innovation.

Americans would be better off if they let the S&P 500 experience an actual correction - which companies could survive? Those companies would end up owning the stagnating assets of the poor performers and expand the wealth of the entire country. Which new companies would enter? Yet, Americans think stability is great, when several corrections would flush out the bad while creating room for the good with the index hovering at over 5,000 right now (if they allowed corrections).

Bubbles raise awareness, but they also flush out the incompetent. Prosperity destroys fools and a bubble makes people feel prosperous. Only the people who don't trust prosperity and success survive: they were the ones from day one who were focused on their vision, not on the distraction of success. Never forget that while success distracts, failure reminds. Most people cannot handle success; they sabotage what made them successful. Companies are no different. This is why I welcome bubbles. In the end, the quality projects (like the quality companies) will always reset at a higher price after the correction than their price before the bubble began.

One of bitcoin's most spectacular bubbles - the 2011 bubble - saw a rise of bitcoin from less than $1 to over $32 with bitcoin experiencing a 93% drop in price, yet still above $1. Bitcoin never fell below $1 again (as of 2017) and today bitcoin is slightly over $1,000 (a one thousand multiple increase from $1). That is the power of allowing extreme prosperity so that we can all see who's using it the best and who's really fake, because when the chips fall - and they will - no faker can hide.

A Time To Leave?

Some projects in the cryptosphere are currently attempting to address problems that we've experienced. Technology only exists when it solves problems. But technology changes and we don't always foresee what technology we'll be using in the future.

At one time, I used Lycos for all of my web searches. I also connected with my elementary friends on ICQ. I haven't used either in a while. I also don't know of anyone who uses them anymore, though they both still exist last I checked.

I caution our readers to be careful of people talking about promises decades away from now. I would be surprised if any crypto-token existed in "decades" from now. It has nothing to do with good or bad ideas and more to do with technology making big shifts.

If you consider all the software plus how we use technology today, it differs from forty years ago. I expect the cryptosphere is part of a period of innovation. Eventually, there may come a time to leave the cryptosphere. In my view, that time is not yet [as of 2017 when this article was written].

We should consider this perspective in everything. We love seeing the growth and recognition of this industry, but given how rapidly technology changes, we're unlikely to see this industry several decades from now. If it still remains in that future, then it had to address the challenges to keep existing.

It's worth considering this in everything we do.

All written content is copyright, all rights reserved. None of the content may be shared with any artificial intelligence application. Note that the full context of the above article may not be clear to readers, nor may it apply to the reader's situation.

The Cryptosphere Nears $40 Billion